讲座主题：

企业进入与市场关联性：来自中国出口反倾销关税的证据

Firm Entry and Market Interdependence: Evidence from anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese exports

主讲嘉宾：孙昶，香港大学经管学院副教授

时间：2025年4月23日（周三）10:00

地点：英国上市365官网沙河校区学院楼13号楼305

主持人：张晓涛，教授，英国上市365官网院长

主办：英国上市365官网英国上市365官网、北京高校国际商务专业虚拟教研室、北京高校党建工作样板支部国际商务系教工党支部

讲座内容：

研究针对中国产品的单边反倾销关税如何影响其向不同目的国的出口。研究发现，被调查产品在征收关税的国家（目标国）和未征收关税的国家（第三国）的总销售额均出现下降。进一步通过分解分析表明，各国出口的同步下降主要由新进入企业数量减少驱动。相比之下，个体出口商的销售额在目标国减少，但在第三国增加。为解释这些现象，论文构建了一个基于企业对多市场进入决策相互依赖性的行业均衡框架。研究表明，仅通过进入边际（entry margin）即可产生跨市场的政策溢出效应，且关税反应的异质性与数据一致。最后，论文校准模型并量化了单边关税对全球贸易和福利的影响。

Using Chinese Customs data, we study how unilateral anti-dumping (AD) tariffs on Chinese products affect their exports to different destination countries. We first document that investigated products experience a decline in their total sales in both the countries that impose tariffs (focal countries) and those that do not (third countries). A decomposition exercise further suggests that the simultaneous declines in exports across countries are primarily driven by a reduction in the number of entrants. In contrast, individual exporters' sales decrease in the focal countries but increase in the third countries. To rationalize these facts,we develop an industry equilibrium framework based on firms' interdependent entry decisions to multiple markets. We show that the entry margin alone can generate cross-market policy spillovers and heterogeneous tariff responses consistent with the data. Finally, we calibrate our model and quantify the global impact of a unilateral tariff on trade and welfare.

嘉宾简介：

孙昶，香港大学经管学院副教授。普林斯顿大学经济学博士，清华大学经济学学士。研究领域为国际贸易、跨国投资及其经济效应。在Journal of International Economics, Journal of Monetary Economics, European Economic Review等国际顶级学术期刊发表论文多篇。